Understanding change and identifying tipping points of significant change is important to increase the resilience of the catchment and its social, economic and environmental services. A tipping point, or threshold, is a critical level of one or more variables. When crossed, it triggers abrupt change in the system that may not be reversible (Wayfinder 2021).
Some tipping points are well understood and can be used to track progress and guide management. While our understanding of others is still developing. It is a key outcome of the strategy to build our understanding of tipping points and how to apply them through partnerships and research projects with a range of organisations. This strategy outlines which tipping points are important to understand and monitor. In some circumstances tipping points have been exceeded and we need to establish targets to stabilise system function. As our understanding around each of the tipping improves during the implementation of the strategy, this section will be updated.
Planning with local communities over the last 6 years has identified critical attributes for the communities in each local area. More details are in the Local Area sections.
At the catchment-scale, major tipping points have been identified for each natural resource theme. Click on the tabs below for a more information.
Biodiversity tipping points
Table 127 outlines the data-driven tipping points for biodiversity to stimulate discussion and will be investigated during the life of the strategy. They will be updated as our understanding improves.
Table 127: The draft data-driven tipping points for biodiversity that will be further investigated during the implementation of the Goulburn Broken Regional Catchment Strategy
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping points of interest |
|---|---|
| Native vegetation extent | • A minimum of 10-30% native vegetation extent in priority landscapes and regions is required to support the majority of fauna. |
| Native vegetation quality | • A minimum of 60% of species (from the benchmark for each EVC) is present in all remnants and revegetation sites to provide high quality habitat. • At least 15% of each pre-1750 EVC are protected and managed through a range of mechanisms for the EVC to be resilient to change. |
| Landscape context | • At least 90% of revegetation activities are in the high or very high priority link areas to improve landscape connection. |
| Threatened species | • Identify the habitat quality and extent that influence threatened species recovery. • Identify when threatened vegetation and fauna communities become novel and no longer resemble the original community. |
Community tipping points
Table 128 outlines the data-driven tipping points for community awareness, engagement and leadership in NRM to stimulate discussion and will be investigated during the life of the strategy. They will be updated as our understanding improves.
Table 128: The draft data-driven tipping points for community capacity that will be further investigated during the implementation of the Goulburn Broken Regional Catchment Strategy
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping point of interest |
|---|---|
| Community capacity to influence and lead. | • 70% of NRM investment in the catchment is directed by community-led decision making. |
| Community capacity to be involved and act on-ground. | • 20% of the catchment community values and is actively involved in environmental stewardship. |
Land tipping points
Table 129 outlines the data-driven tipping points for land that will be investigated during the life of the strategy. For further information around the tipping points click here.
Table 129: The draft data-driven tipping points for land that will be further investigated during implementation of the Goulburn Broken Regional Catchment Strategy
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping point of interest |
|---|---|
| Species diversity | • At least 30% native vegetation cover at a catchment scale is required for landscape function, biodiversity conservation, climate change resilience and species richness. • 15-30 species in an agricultural paddock setting are required to maintain ecological function for land health. |
| Ground cover | • 100% ground cover is needed to prevent erosion and improve the water cycle. |
| Soil organic carbon | • Soil organic carbon is at least 2% in annual croplands and 5% in permanent pastures and plantings to improve water infiltration and holding capacity, nutrient cycling and soil physical structure. |
Water tipping points
Tables 130-132 outline the data-driven tipping points for water to stimulate discussion and will be investigated during the life of the strategy. They will be updated as our understanding improves.
Water availability
Table 130: The draft data-driven tipping points for the critical attributes of water availability
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping points focus areas |
|---|---|
| Quantity of water supply | • 880 GL of water for agriculture is available to the Shepparton Irrigation Region in an average 100% allocation season. • 1 in 100 year average recurrence interval of flooding becomes more frequent. • Urban water delivery restrictions remains below Level 3 80% of the time, in 80% of delivery systems. |
| Place of water supply | • Shallow water tables in the Shepparton Irrigation Region are maintained below 2 m for at least 50% of the irrigated landscape. |
| Timing of water supply | • Summer flows in the lower Goulburn River don’t exceed 1,700 ML/day continually. • Estimated demand is available 80% of the time for all beneficial users. • No more than 3 consecutive years without a spring fresh in rivers to sustain native fish populations. • Red gum floodplains are inundated at least once every 3 years. • High priority wetlands do not exceed wetting/drying cycle tolerances for the relevant EVC. |
Water quality
Table 131: The draft data-driven tipping points for the critical attributes of water quality
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping point focus areas |
|---|---|
| Salt and nutrients | • 80% of water quality parameters are managed within State Environment Protection Policy tolerance limits 100% of the time. • Broken River median salinity at Casey’s Weir End-of-Valley Target site of less than 141 electrical conductivity (formal target of 141% electrical conductivity (EC) units of median baseline conditions). • Goulburn River median salinity at Goulburn Weir End-of-Valley Target site of less than 99 electrical conductivity (EC) units. • Stock are excluded from riparian zones to at least a 20 m setback to prevent nutrient pollution. |
| Dissolved oxygen | • Dissolved oxygen average daily concentrations do not fall below 3 mg/L for 3 consecutive days. |
| Temperature | • Water temperatures don’t exceed 25-28°C. |
| pH | • The pH of rivers and wetlands is not below 6.5 or above 7.5. |
Riparian and aquatic biodiversity
Table 132: The draft data-driven tipping points for the critical attributes of riparian and aquatic biodiversity
| Critical attribute | Draft tipping point focus areas |
|---|---|
| Native vegetation extent | • 10-30% native vegetation cover for each EVC across the catchment. • At least a 30 m riparian exclusion zone for livestock on a stream or wetland. |
| Species diversity | • A minimum of 50% of the prescribed species for the EVCs are present. • 100% of the EVCs across the catchment are present. • Need to identify the tipping point for the diversity of provenance of a species needed to ensure adaptation to climate change and extreme weather events. |
| Vegetation structure quality | • A minimum of 3 layers is required across 90% of the riparian vegetation EVCs. |
| Landscape context | • 70% of riparian zones support native vegetation. • Mature trees are between 10-30 metres apart. |
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